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Hello, and welcome to your biweekly story from the
offices of TrainerTrackStats.
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- Review of end newsletter
- System angle: Going Change Winners
- A practical joke...
- Tomorrow's qualifiers
REVIEW OF LAST NEWSLETTER
The closing report I sent was in truth the early. And what a result!
As economically as providing a lucrative convention angle, we also looked at why it pays to be reticent of short-priced flooding tutorial horses having their seasonal first appearance.
A classical causa in constituent was Champion Hurdle moon-curser up, Harchibald, who had his first-year run of the period on Sunday at Tipperary. Having opened at 1-4, the equid drifted to 2-7, afterwards 1-3. This is commonly a gesticulation that a foal is 'carrying condition' (as mentioned final time, this is trainerspeak for 'not fit').
Sure enough, 'Harchie' was active optimum of all next to a fourth land mile to run, but found really aught when asked to put together his attempt. He exhausted fourth of five, and the aroma of cooked fingers could be sniffed intersectant the Emerald Isle. There'll be a not bad few more flooding profile, eternal unequal defeats back October is through with. You have been warned...!
Also, in the concluding newsletter, I started what is to be a regular property in the letter: Tomorrow's Qualifiers. This is where I tender you an perception into the remarkable worldwide of Trainer Track Stats.
On a never-to-be-repeated day, out of ix selections, viii were winners, as well as 10/1 and 12/1 horses. The sole horse not to win was settled 3rd at 12/1, in the one and the same race that we had the 4/1 winner!!
You'll brainwave tomorrow's qualifiers at the pedestal of this document.
SYSTEM ANGLE: GOING CHANGE WINNERS
Its the clip of period of time when Autumn starts to hit into Winter, and the loop and precipitation changes the active provisions about each day. In short, its a pugnacious instance to be a punter. So, I sought to answer the question,
How can we use this filthy windward to our advantage?.
One of the belongings that affected me was,
What if a equus caballus had in the past won on today's going, but was mistreated closing juncture out on markedly opposite ground?
Well, I put this to the audition near my fiducial Racing Systems Builder software package (the very incalculably stupefying information I setline to regain the TrainerTrackStats nuggets). I used my regular 14/1 or less condition, and as well restricted it to tyro races. This is what I learnt if today's going was two or more types quicker or slower than ultimate instance out:
YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% VSP%
2001 20 69 28.99 3.17 4.59 7.69
2002 16 58 27.59 -5.40 -9.31 4.52
2003 16 39 41.03 38.00 97.44 43.29
2004 22 70 31.43 3.85 5.50 21.15
2005 16 55 29.09 0.95 1.73 6.21
90 291 30.93 40.57 13.94 15.23
As you can see, there are a number of super opportunities to discovery merit here...
Nothing to do next to foal athletics or victor determination but very
A man walks into a dentists' surgery, and says, You've got to help out me, I conjecture I'm a lepidopteron.
The dental practitioner replies, You don't have need of a dentist, you condition a shrink.
The man says, I cognise.
The dentist, slightly bemused, says, So what are you doing here?!
Grinning, the man replies, The neutral was on!
Exeter 2.10 Brochrua
Exeter 3.10 Boychuk
Exeter 4.40 Grave Doubts
Towces 3.00 Sexy Rexy (PRICE WARNING)
Note the (PRICE WARNING). This foal - resembling all qualifiers -
must be 14/1 or shorter to be a contestant.
REMINDER / NEXT LETTER...
Well, that's almost all for this reminder. I anticipation you've enjoyed it. Before I close, I'd look-alike to income the possibility to inform those of you
who have yet to offer that I now have a day after day email subscription work for TrainerTrackStats, openhanded you all the ensuing day's selections the period of time before.
For more information, go to
Next news report will be in your inbox on or on all sides 17th October.
Finally, if you have any remarks / activity on this letter, or thing you'd similar to to see in future,
please email your suggestions to
I'll watch fore to quick-eared from you!
Thanks for reading, and first-rate regards
Author, TrainerTrackStats NH 2006/7